The first few weeks of a fantasy season are usually where the first significant player trends shift, trends that will usually hold up until live drafting ends. In the case of starting pitching, however, fantasy players seem to take opening trends very seriously. Some owners panic and drop marquee names who don’t perform well from the get-go; some snap up as many prospects as they can, hoping to pick up a stud.

Below is a list of 10 starting pitchers who have seen significant movement in their draft stock after two weeks of play.

Rising

Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners

Smart fantasy owners who realized that Hernandez would provide better initial value than Scott Kazmir or Roy Oswalt are being handsomely rewarded so far, as Hernandez has been great through three starts so far this year. He got off to a hot start as well last year before tailing off, but word around Seattle is that Hernandez, who reported to spring training in good shape, will finally get it all together in 2008

Like last year, his draft stock has jumped drastically; once a seventh-to-ninth round pick, he has leapfrogged over other studs like Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander into the top tier of starters. There’s no telling whether Hernandez will collapse down the stretch again, but with a host of other top starters struggling, King Felix looks to be solid value regardless.

Johnny Cueto – Cincinnati Reds

Cueto’s sparkling debut against Arizona two weeks ago set fantasy hearts atwitter, and also set off a mad rush to waivers to pick up the previously-unlisted Cueto. Cueto followed up his debut effort with another strong effort five days later, but was brought back to earth against the Pirates on April 13, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings.  

Cueto has been wildly fluctuating on draft boards, but is mostly going in the rounds that Felix Hernandez previously occupied. There’s always a huge risk with giving a high pick to a hot-starter (take a bow, Curtis Shelton), and there’s no telling whether or not Cueto will be worth it in the long run. As much as I have hyped up Cueto prior to the season, I have not drafted him ever since his debut start, as his value has ballooned far beyond my liking.

Chien-Ming Wang – New York Yankees

Fantasy owners have always been put off by Wang’s lack of K’s, despite the fact that he has won 19 games the past two seasons. He was a major bargain for smart owners prior to the season; what’s not to love about a young Yankee’s ace being available in the ninth round? Wang has been borderline dominant so far in his three starts so far, with a complete game against Boston to boot.

His value hasn’t creeped up as high as a top-tier ace yet, and that should work to a smart owner’s advantage. He’s already increasing his K count, so if you’re looking for an ace on the cheap, Wang has fantastic value.

Ben Sheets – Milwaukee Brewers

For the first time in years, Sheets saw his fantasy stock tumble after yet another injury-ridden year. He was usually taken after players like Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum, but this year he’s hit the ground running with performances which remind us all of how much talent he possesses.

His stock is starting to rebound in drafts, but caution is advised with Sheets, as it is way, way too early to know if Sheets has overcome his injury problems. Among the big name pitchers who are rising, Sheets perhaps carries the most risk.

Shaun Marcum – Toronto Blue Jays

Marcum’s stock was curiously going up even before he had made a start this season, but so far he’s proven to a smart waiver wire pickup for fantasy owners. In three starts, he’s racked up 20 K’s with a record of 2-0. Maybe those retro jerseys qualify as performance-enhancing substances.

There are many good starters in the back end of the field, but if you’re banking on Marcum having a Ted Lilly-esque year in Toronto, he’s still available around the last rounds of drafts, making him a great low-risk pick.

Edwin Jackson – Tampa Bay Rays

Five years ago, Jackson was one of the top pitching prospects in America with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Four years of unending struggles have made those scouting reports a distant memory, but Jackson has started strong this year, with a 2-1, 2.84 ERA record so far this season. He stumbled in his last start, however, taking the loss against the Yankees on April 15.

Jackson is still available on most waiver wires, but at this point can’t be relied on to be a permanent fantasy piece. He hasn’t done well with his control, and at this point using a draft pick on him would seem unwise with the depth of starting pitching still around. Don’t buy in just yet.

Falling

C. C. Sabathia – Cleveland Indians

So much for the traditional contract-year bump. C.C. has been horrendous through three starts so far, with an ERA of 11.57 the only big numbers he has to show for his efforts. He’s not doing himself any favors for potential suitors so far, and with the Indians plowing their money into Fausto Carmona, C.C. might inching closer to the door in Cleveland if he doesn’t turn it around soon.

From a fantasy standpoint, he probably will turn it around. Sabathia doesn’t have a reputation for being a slow starter, but owners are already wary of him, passing him over in recent drafts for Dan Haren or the aforementioned Felix Hernandez. If C.C. can be had after the fifth or sixth round, take him.

Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers

It wasn’t too long ago that Verlander was being lauded as a lock to win 20 games this year for the Tigers. So far, however, he has been playing to the level of his team, which is a bad thing if you’re the Tigers. Verlander is 0-2 with an ERA of around 6.50 and is also showing some lapses of control in his pitching.

Last year, Jeremy Bonderman crashed and failed after being touted as a Cy Young candidate; it remains to be seen whether Verlander can turn it all around this year. He’s fallen behind pitchers like Carlos Zambrano and Roy Halladay on draft boards, and his first year as the staff ace might be a rough one. Observe with caution even as his stock falls.

Dontrelle Willis – Detroit Tigers

Willis went from being drafted really late in drafts to being dropped en masse by teams after going on the DL with a hyperextended knee. He walked seven batters in his first start and walked two more without recording a K before going down with injury. His current ERA is 7.20

Willis is now being avoided like the plague, and you would be wise to do the same. The days of Willis being a staff ace appears to be over; this years seems to be a year of painful rediscovery for Willis in an effort to find his groove. It’s worth keeping an eye on him on waivers, but Willis won’t be winning 22 times again anytime soon. 

Pedro Martinez – New York Mets

I suppose it was too much of us to ask of Pedro to stay healthy for an extended period of time. He gave up 4 runs in 3.1 innings against Florida before going down with injury, and now he’s out for 4-6 weeks, a number which, for all we know, could mean 3 months for Pedro.

He used to be drafted in the mid-rounds by optimistic owners; now, he’s a waiver wire pickup. If you have a roster space for him, then fine; if you need to drop a healthy player to get him, just say no.

Roy Oswalt – Houston Astros

Oswalt, despite having 12 K’s to only 2 walks, has been shelled so far this season, losing all three of his starts while compiling an ERA of 9.00. It’s hard to argue that any of these losses have been hard-luck ones either; as such, his fantasy stock has been in a freefall.

There were many reports that Oswalt’s K count was falling this year, but nobody thought Houston’s ace would be struggling to this degree. With that being said, he’s fallen low enough to be a nice mid-round pick if you’re into gambles; this one could pay off handsomely if he gets it together, or it could blow up in your face if you use a single-digit pick. Tread carefully with Oswalt.

Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers

We were told that Billingsley would be the future ace for the Dodgers, but he’s been relegated to long relief so far this season, greatly frustrating owners who passed by Rich Harden to get him. He hasn’t even been good in long relief, but showed signs of life with 5 strong innings on April 13 while taking a hard-luck loss against San Diego.  

The Dodgers aren’t lacking in depth, and it’s not impossible that Billingsley will have to stay in the bullpen for even longer. At this point, even inactive starters like Yovani Gallardo and Francisco Liriano seem to present better upside than Billingsley, but if Billingsley can be had with one of your last picks, take a chance on him.