Apr
Boston Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury has just about put veteran backup Coco Crisp in his rearview mirror for good. He is in the same form now as when he burst onto the scene in 2007, igniting the Red Sox offense with an array of skills and carving out a huge piece of the team’s outfield time share.
First point in his favor over Crisp, Ellsbury is quickly becoming an adept leadoff man for the Sox. Look no further than his 12 walks and just four strikeouts in 43 at-bats to gauge that progress. For comparison’s sake, he had just eight walks and 15 strikeouts in 116 at-bats in his debut last season. The production results have been much the same; Ellsbury has scored 15 runs over the last 11 games, and Boston has been victorious 10 times over that stretch.
With the number of times he’s reached base - he has a .444 on-base percentage - Ellsbury is once again a fantasy heart throb with eight stolen bases. It’s not just the fact that he has eight steals this season, including six in his last five games, it’s the the rate at which he’s been caught — zero percent of the time. In fact, he is a perfect 14-for-14 in stolen base opportunities during his time in Boston.
Ellsbury will flash some better power than he has displayed thus far, but he belongs on your team for three different reasons: to hit for a high average, steal bases and score runs in bunches. He’s looking like he’ll do a lot of all three for many years to come in Boston.
Speaking of skill sets …
Braves third baseman Chipper Jones is displaying his premium strength - a Hall of Fame caliber bat - and his premium weakness - is day-to-day with a tight quad. He has been arguably the best hitter in the game in the early going, batting an incredible .453 with six homers and 19 RBI.
Barring an unfortunate injury, Phillies second baseman Chase Utley looks like a lock to set new career-bests across the board in 2008. Where Jimmy Rollins carried the Phils in Utley’s absence with a hand injury last season, Utley is doing the same while Rollins sits with an ankle sprain in 2008. Utley has catapulted to the top of baseball’s home run leaderboard with nine and has six long balls in his last five games.
Sitting right behind Utley on the home run list is Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee, who is finally 100 percent healthy after suffering a broken wrist in 2006. Lee has seven home runs through 19 games this season where, in 2007, he didn’t hit his seventh homer until July 15.
Entering Monday action, four of the top five stolen base threats in baseball were hitting below .250. Leading the way is new Astros acquisition Michael Bourn, who has 13 stolen bases but just 16 hits and a .216 average.
Plenty of positive things have been said about Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton, all of which are deserved after a much-doubted preseason in fantasy circles. Upton has shown maturity far beyond his 20 years, leading all National League outfielders with a .384 batting average and hitting five early homers.
As good as Upton has been, teammate Conor Jackson has been even better. Jackson is hitting .368, leads baseball with three triples and ranks fourth with a 1.186 on-base plus slugging average (OPS).
It is worth mentioning that just one American League player ranks among the top 13 on the OPS leaderboard.
Cincinnati teammates Aaron Harang and Johnny Cueto are tied atop the Major League strikeouts list with 29 apiece. Only Cleveland’s Cliff Lee has a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio than Cueto’s 29-to-3 among starting pitchers.
Lee also leads starting pitchers with an average game score of 78.0 and a .111 opponents batting average. What a difference a year makes; Last year, Lee had pitched himself off the Indians big league roster. This year, he’s allowed just one extra-base hit and one earned run in 22.2 innings.
Texas starting pitcher Kevin Millwood has been a grab bag of statistical anomalies thus far. He has managed to post a 2.53 ERA in spite of a 1.56 WHIP. He has contended for a win with four quality starts in four outings, but has come away with just one victory. As things normalize, look for his ERA to drift towards 4.50 and the wins to keep flowing at a lava-like pace.
Other thoughts on the matter …
MLB Front Office is also wary of Millwood’s fantasy future.
Fake Teams believes that Cueto’s numbers will regress as luck evens out.
The Red Sox will trade Crisp, and Ellsbury will steal 40 bases, Semo Sports Web predicted.
Roto Scoop points out that Bourn is on pace for 97 steals.
