23
May
2008

Fantasy: The All-Disappointment Team

Posted by Dustin Hockensmith

We don’t consider ourselves pessimists, but we found it intriguing to take a closer look at the number of high profile players off to slow starts in 2008. We’ll get around to the more upbeat All-Surprise Team eventually, but for now, take a look at some of the less fruitful preseason draft choices.

While injured players can make this list, players who have fallen short of expectation strictly because of a disabled list stint weren’t eligibile. Alex Rodriguez, J.J. Putz and Jimmy Rollins are a few examples of those types of players. With or without injury, a player had to have some sort of early expectations, then crashed, burned and fell well short of them.

Without further ado, here’s this year’s squad. We’ll revisit the issue later in the year and see which, if any, of the names below are still on the list.

C: Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians
In most leagues, Martinez was the first catcher off the board in drafts. Part of a struggling Indians lineup, Martinez has yet to hit a home run while driving in just 15 runs in 38 games.
Honorable mention: Kenji Johjima, C, Seattle Mariners

1B: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
Lot of candidates for this one, but Howard gets the nod for hitting .207 and striking out a league-high 71 times. He has gotten hot over the past week, but the streak has yet to drown out a batting average that surely dug a hole for fantasy teams everywhere. That’s a major liability for a first or second round pick.
Honorable mention: Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers; Nick Swisher, Chicago White Sox

2B: Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers
My thought is that Polanco was overvalued to begin with, so underachieving was a strong possibility. His soft-hitting was much more tolerable in 2007 when he hit .341 and scored 105 runs. This season, the .281 average and 20 runs won’t cut it with such little potential in power and speed.
Honorable mention: Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres
There are two big factors beyond Kouzmanoff’s control - that hideous Padres lineup and his offensively challenged home stadium, Petco Park. Regardless, the .274 average, 5 homers and 19 RBIs remain the same. The .250 average at home and a 37-to-5 strikeout-to-walk rate aren’t promising for a future hot streak, either.
Honorable mention: Mike Lowell, Boston Red Sox

SS: Orlando Cabrera, Chicago White Sox
Cabrera was red-hot in May and June last year, but is hitting just .219 with 3 homers, 11 RBIs and 5 stolen bases in his first season in Chicago. Cabrera has shown this form over the course of entire seasons (2002, 2004-05), and I’m led to believe that the change in scenery and/or his age are revealing it once again in 2008.
Honorable mention: Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox

LF: Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
Byrnes is not hitting (.213, 4 HRs, 17 RBIs), and he has tight hamstrings that are limiting him on the basepaths. The latter issue is what really hurts the 32-year old’s value. Fantasy owners would have been content with some struggles at the plate if he could just approach the 50 bases he stole in 2007. At this point, 25 steals would be a best-case scenario.
Honorable mention: Delmon Young, Minnesota Twins

CF: Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
Beltran is creeping towards normal production rates, with the exception of the numbers that count the most in fantasy. Especially prohibitive are his four home runs, which are a by-product of offseason surgery on both knees. A hot streak could very well be coming soon, but it might be too late for him to salvage a Beltran-like season.
Honorable mention: Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers

RF: Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels
Of course, at the time this was being written, Guerrero launched two homers and drove in four runs in a 4-3 win over Toronto on Wednesday. The fact remains, though, that the 32-year old slugger is declining in power and speed, placing an extra premium on his RBI count. That number currently stands at 27, which is tied for 20th among fantasy outfielders.
Honorable mention: Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies

SP: Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
By most indications, Beckett has exhibited the same in form in 2008 that he showed in his first season with the Red Sox in 2006. That year, he finished with a 5.01 ERA and was victimized by 36 home run balls, more than twice as many as the 17 he allowed in 20-win campaign last season. Being backed by a superb offense and defense, Beckett will stumble upon 15 wins and high quality strikeout totals, but his 4.67 ERA will likely be a problem the rest of the year.

SP: Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros
Oswalt has been prone to slow starts, but there are signs of trouble this time around. He’s pitching with groin and hip injuries, which have no doubt affected the results. He has a 5.61 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, and he’s on pace to set career-worsts in most statistical measures. None is more glaring than the fact he leads the majors in both home runs (15) and total bases (152) allowed.

SP: Chris Young, San Diego Padres
Young was struck in the face with an Albert Pujols line drive on Wednesday, knocking him out of the game in the third inning and forcing him to the disabled list with a broken nose. Prior to that, he struggled with walks, hittability and home runs, which elevated his ERA and WHIP to 4.50 and 1.48, respectively. The silver lining in the cloud was that he’s already factored into eight decisions in 10 starts, compared to just 17 (9-8 record) in 30 starts last season.

SP: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
Hernandez is the new model of immaturity in baseball, failing to make the most of his massive potential because his youth is apparent in each one of his starts. His stuff is electric, some of the best in the game, but he’s made little progress in terms of baserunners allowed, which has put a cap on his value. Part of his struggles in 2008 are a result of the Mariners’ offensive futility; he has a 3.34 ERA, but just a 2-4 record.

SP: Brett Myers, Philadelphia Phillies
Coming off a dominant half season as a closer, fantasy owners envisioned Myers carrying that form back into the Phillies starting rotation. It hasn’t happened, and he’s been victimized by 15 home runs (tied for most in the majors) and a .307 opponents batting average. Owners are slowly cutting bait with him; I’d recommend doing the same if things don’t turn around quickly.

RP: Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
Broxton is getting back on track, but his early season meltdown against the Astros had a colossal impact on fantasy teams’ ERAs everywhere. One of the most owned middle relievers in fantasy baseball, Broxton allowed six runs in 0.1 innings, which raised his season ERA from 1.80 to 5.28. While it’s one of the few statistical blemishes on his season stat line, Broxton’s typically heavy workload and high strikeout count have also been limited.

RP: Rafael Betancourt, Cleveland Indians
Betancourt has not only been truly bad in 2008, but he botched an attempt to permanently win the Indians’ closer role. The ninth-inning pressure, which Betancourt has obvious problems dealing with, did play a role in his downfall, but he was having a down season before landing the job vacated by an injured Joe Borowski.

CL: Eric Gagne, Milwaukee Brewers
Gagne is one case where I couldn’t care less about preseason expectation. If he landed on your roster for free, the price would have been too steep. No pitcher in baseball has been worse than this guy.

Dustin Hockensmith is editor of ImaginaryDiamond.com. He can be contacted at dhockensmith[at]fantasysports101.net.

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