15
Jul
2008

Week 16 Free Agent Profiles: Starting Pitchers

Posted by Dustin Hockensmith

Take a deep breath. For the first time since March, there’s no baseball to obsessively watch and no fantasy lineup to maintain. As much as major league players need a physical break from the grind of their daily schedules, we could use a mental break from our own daily grind.

Now, there’s a difference between taking a break and a leave of absence. Little news develops during the All-Star break, but there is still work to be done. This is a good time to reflect on where your pitching staff stands in relation to an innings or starts limit and figure out what needs to be done the rest of the way.

Long-term waiver wire additions are risky propositions with starting pitchers. Question marks about their game are rudely revealed when they give up 8 runs in 2.2 innings and send you team’s ERA into the tank. Spot starters are usually the way to go, even on a list like the one below that we believe has some good, legitimate talent.

But, there are names to consider for both roles. Mike Pelfrey is emerging; Francisco Liriano could make a big splash in his forthcoming callup to Minnesota; Scott Baker has performed well; Brett Myers is on his way back from a minor league assignment.

The full list (stats as of July 13 games):

Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets
Status:
Realizing vast potential
Key Stats: 6-0 in his last 6 starts
What to Watch For: Continuing decline of his WHIP, as a result of better control numbers
Other Notes: Season WHIP (1.47) will keep driving uninformed owners away, but something has clicked for the 24-year old … Pelfrey hasn’t walked a batter in either of his last two starts, something he hadn’t done in any of his previous starts … controlling his sinker better than ever, with fewer walks and better groundball-to-flyball ratios … has 28 groundouts, 10 flyouts, 10 strikeouts and no walks in his last 2 starts.

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
Status:
Inevitable callup sometime post-break
Key Stats: Is 3-0 with 0.00 ERA, 24 Ks, 3 BBs in last 3 starts at Triple-A Rochester
What to Watch For: Which member of the Twins’ rotation gets the axe to make room for Liriano. Top candidates are Livan Hernandez and Glen Perkins.
Other Notes: Sky is the limit for when he returns. Few can offer his strikeouts potential, and he can put up dominant numbers in ERA and WHIP. Well worth a speculative pickup now, as his callup is just around the corner.

Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox
Status:
Back to being his typical, efficient self
Key Stats: Is 4-2 with a 1.86 ERA in 8 starts since June 1
What to Watch For: More steady results, home starts vs. light-hitting opponents
Other Notes: Of course, home starts vs. light-hitting opponents are favorable, but Buehrle is much more effective at U.S. Cellular Field … he has a .300 BAA on the road, .245 BAA at home … has not fared well vs. Cleveland (0-1, 9.22 ERA in 3 starts) … has a 3.56 career ERA in the 1st half, 4.10 career ERA in 2nd half.

Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers
Status:
Finding rhythm in return from the DL
Key Stats: Has held opponents scoreless in 2 of last 3 starts
What to Watch For: Bouts of inconsistency; they plagued him prior to landing on the DL with a shoulder injury.
Other Notes: Is a 33-year old rookie from Japan … in 3 June starts, threw one complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts and failed to make it through the third inning twice … don’t expect greatness every time he takes the mound.

Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros
Status:
Still one of the best matchup-based spot starters in fantasy
Key Stats: Is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 7 home starts, 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 6 road starts
What to Watch For: Home matchups for spot spart opportunities
Other Notes: 2 of his next 3 scheduled starts will be at home, July 19 vs. the Cubs and July 30 vs. Cincinnati … is 13-21 with a 5.76 ERA in 49 career road appearances (42 starts).

Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers
Status:
Has lost lucky touch, but is still a quality arm
Key Stats: Has 3.78 ERA and steadily declining 1.49 WHIP
What to Watch For: Continued effectiveness and control … has 10 Ks and 4 BBs in 13.1 July innings
Other Notes: Allowed five runs (four earned) in his last start, but seven baserunners (one walk) in 6.1 innings were still a positive sign … last two starts have come in 6-5 losses … also made a relief appearance on July 7.

Scott Baker, Minnesota Twins
Status: Healthy and on the best run of his young career
Key Stats: Has 6 quality starts in his last 7 outings … is 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA since returning from the DL on June 5
What to Watch For: Abilities to keep working deep into games and limiting damage by not walking batters
Other Notes: Has emerged as the Twins’ unofficial No. 1 starter after missing time with a groin injury

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
Status: Back from an extended stay at Triple-A Pawtucket
Key Stats: Has 49 Ks in 47.1 innings this season
What to Watch For: A little less recklessness; has potential to dominate but shoots himself in the foot too often
Other Notes: Manager Terry Francona is going to let him pitch through his struggles … fantasy owners aren’t so lucky, but should monitor his progress very closely … as he improves, he could be big-time addition for the second half.

Brett Myers, Philadelphia Phillies
Status:
A minor league start away from returning to Philly
Key Stats: Is 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA in 3 minor league starts
What to Watch For: His attitude, progress upon return to Phillies
Other Notes: Has the potential to be a frontline starter again … appears to have worked through many of his mechanical issues … Phillies’ are relying upon him to step up and pitch like a No. 2 behind Cole Hamels.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Status:
Back in Cincinnati for third time
Key Stats: Pitched 5 strong innings, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits, in first start back
What to Watch For: If progress was a short-term flash in the pan or a long-term fix
Other Notes: Third time may be a charm for Bailey … looked like a different pitcher in the Reds’ 3-2 loss to Milwaukee on Sunday … remains to be seen if he can work beyond the fifth inning, but has enough seasoning to be worth watching … worth an immediate flier in NL-only leagues.

Dustin Hockensmith is editor of ImaginaryDiamond.com. He can be contacted at dhockensmith[at]fantasysports101.net.

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