14
Nov
2008

CC Sabathia’s First Offer: Risk vs. Reward

Posted by Dustin Hockensmith

Is it dangerous for the Yankees to offer left-hander CC Sabathia the largest contract ever for a Major League pitcher, a deal the New York Daily News is reporting to be for $140 million over six years?

Yes and no, in our estimation.

Yes, in the classic, pitchers-are-subject-to-injury-and-long-term-deals-are-always-a-risk sense (how’s that for hyphens?). No, in that Sabathia has proven such a workhorse that he has built up a degree of immunity to injury risks.

All of the risk factors - those associated with every free agent pitcher and those specific to Sabathia - have been considered by the Yankees. And, judging by the record contract New York is dangling in front of Sabathia, they pale in comparison to owner Hank Steinbrenner’s dire need to win right now.

Let’s take a look at the knocks against Sabathia

Paying “American League premium”
The Yankees, frankly, have to overpay Sabathia to get him past desires to play for a National League team on the west coast. New York is neither, but is hoping to throw so much money at Sabathia that he can’t say no. This obviously enhances the risk and gives the Yankees more to lose, should Sabathia suffer an injury or falter.

Wear and tear of 494 innings the last two seasons
A legitimate concern. While the heavy workloads can be chalked up as pluses to his durability now, they can also contribute to a decline later. This is the sort of factor that can make Sabathia well worth the price in the first half of the contract and overvalued, maybe severely, in the second half.

Playoff failures
Not as concerned about this one. We think his workload contributed to the playoff failures, which include a 7.92 career ERA and an early exit in his lone ‘08 start against Philadelphia. Size and pure stuff allowed him to pitch effectively at the ends of the ‘07 and ‘08 seasons, but weren’t enough for playoff success. That will change if his new team resists riding him too hard down the stretch.

Weight, obesity
Another legitimate concern. And again, like his previous heavy workloads, this could be a matter of how well or how poorly he ages. At 6-foot-7, 290 pounds, Sabathia’s core strength has allowed him to eat innings like few others in baseball. But, the same size elements could contribute to a rapid decline once he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Pressure of New York City media
This is an unknown variable facing all free agents, heralded and otherwise. There’s simply no telling how a player will react to the bright lights of New York, especially a guy like Sabathia, who has pitched his entire career in the midwest. Sabathia did, however, admit to putting too much pressure on himself to start the ‘08 season, which was a central factor in his early struggles.

Desperation can lead to ugly decisions in free agency, and the Yankees wreak of it right now. Not only are they pursuing Sabathia hard, they are also going after right-handers A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe. New York will overpay for at least one of them, but will shore up its spotty rotation in the process.

The only question is, are these kinds of short-term fixes worth the long-term risks? To Steinbrenner, the answer is coming back a resounding YES.

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