4
Apr
2009

Fantasy: Top 30 Closer Rankings

Posted by Dustin Hockensmith

Rankings are arbitrary and subject to all kinds of different perspective and opinions. At the end of the day, they don’t serve much purpose, except to stir up some controversy and serve as an entertaining read. If we’re lucky, readers will find what they’re about to read controversial, entertaining, informative and/or useful.

These kinds of lists are a little different in fantasy, especially in a publication’s ability to express a thought that’s a little outside the norm. Also, in the case of closer rankings, fantasy owners are able to check out the bottom of our list and see which stoppers may get into early trouble.

As far as what we see as “outside the norm,” Brian Wilson may be a good starting point. We have him among our top 10 closers when many would prefer to slot him in the bottom third of their rankings. The reasons? Well, two, most notably our thought that he is much more capable of improving upon that ugly 4.62/1.44 ERA/WHIP combo than he gets credit for. And second, the Giants handed him a ton of leads to protect in 2008 and look like a much-improved club in 2009.

Letting B.J. Ryan slide all the way down to No. 26 may not be popular theory, either, but we’ve seen a couple of sources talk about his stuff being on the decline. Midway through spring training, ESPN’s Jayson Stark relayed the concerns of a rival scout, and less than two weeks ago, Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston mentioned Scott Downs in the closer conversation after seeing lackluster results and declining velocity from Ryan.

And lastly, we don’t think Huston Street has anything be ashamed of in the way things ended in Oakland. He was no longer untouchable on the mound, but fell victim to circumstance and a truly extraordinary run by Brad Ziegler to lose his closer gig. Well, he’s back in Colorado, with a fresh start and less competition for the job he won from Manny Corpas this spring.

George Sherrill, Troy Percival and Ryan are the three closers we see as having the least amount of job security. All three happen to be ahead of Washington’s Joel Hanrahan, who just shouldn’t see enough save opportunities to justify a ranking any higher than No. 30 right now. He is, however, more secure in his position than several pitchers ranked ahead of him.

Without further ado, here are our first closer rankings of the 2009 season. We try and update these things as close to once a week as possible, plus we’ll always try and stay on the cutting edge with demotions, promotions and all of the information that saves vultures crave during the year.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS: Top closer always good for superior ratios, 40+ SVs
2. Brad Lidge, PHI: Answered all questions in ‘08, going 41-for-41 in save opps
3. Joe Nathan, MIN: Quietly among best closers with 39 saves, elite ratios in ‘08
4. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM: Many expect a letdown after record season; we do not
5. Mariano Rivera, NYY: HOFer has plenty left in tank; amazing 6 BBs, 0.67 WHIP in ‘08
6. Joakim Soria, KC: Game’s best young closer nearly mirrors Rivera’s stats
7. Jose Valverde, HOU: Fiery and erratic, but end results (44 SVs) speak for themselves
8. Jonathan Broxton, LAD: Good chance his supreme setup skills translate to 9th inning
9. Brian Fuentes, LAA: New town and new team that plays in a ton of close ball games
10. Brian Wilson, SF: Managed 41 saves in rocky ‘08; has much room to improve

11. Kerry Wood, CLE: Health again is the question; dominant when he’s on the mound
12. Bobby Jenks, CHW: Dwindling K rate cuts into appeal, but is lock for 30 SVs
13. Francisco Cordero, CIN: Looking plenty healthy (foot) as spring training closes
14. Kevin Gregg, CHC: Wins top fantasy closing job with dominant, scoreless spring
15. Brandon Morrow, SEA: Late shift to bullpen; electric stuff means tons of Ks
16. Matt Capps, PIT: Touched up in spring, but will be ready come Opening Day
17. Chad Qualls, ARI: Cheap source for saves; owners not totally sold on abilities
18. Frank Francisco, TEX: Showed dominance with 14 Ks, 0 ER in 8.2 Sept. innings
19. Huston Street, COL: Lost job in OAK, but still has skills for 30+ saves in COL
20. Brad Ziegler, OAK: Co-closer got a boost to his value when Devine went on DL

21. Jason Motte, STL: Cards love his makeup; “closer” tag should stick all year
22. Matt Lindstrom, FLA: Has big-time arm, which makes us wonder about low K rate
23. Heath Bell, SD: Proven veteran gets crack at closing, though for dismal Padres
24. Troy Percival, TB: Nearly impossible to believe he’ll be healthy enough for 20 SVs
25. Trevor Hoffman, MIL: Has shaken owners already with season-opening DL stint
26. B.J. Ryan, TOR: Never good when manager talks publicly about velocity concerns
27. Fernando Rodney, DET: Leyland named him closer, declared him healthy for ‘09
28. Mike Gonzalez, ATL: Lefty can be explosive or implosive; hard to trust in fantasy
29. George Sherrill, BAL: Has value early, but not likely to keep closer job all year
30. Joel Hanrahan, WAS: No knock on Hanrahan; SV opps will be at premium in WAS

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