Jun
Young pitchers and recovering veterans are the theme this week, since a handful of each offer the best potential value on the waiver wire. The must-know name is Atlanta Braves phenom Tommy Hanson, who will make his much-anticipated 2009 debut Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Another youngster, Detroit Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello, has been pitching effectively in the big leagues all season. He is not a perfect addition to a fantasy rotation — he faces an innings limit and has a low strikeout rate — but Porcello has a lot of talent and a knack for earning decisions in his starts.
Injured veterans John Smoltz and Kelvim Escobar are rehabbing right now, and we know exactly what both have to offer when healthy. Of course, there are questions about just when they’re healthy and how long they can stay that way, but those risks are what makes them so widely available in fantasy leagues. Take on the injury risk, and there are huge potential rewards.
The complete list. Each of the 10 following players are available in at least 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues. Statistics are through June 3 games.
Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Status: Babyfaced, but with big upside
Key Stats: Has earned a decision in all 10 starts (6-4)
What to Watch For: A Justin Verlander-like impact in 1st year
Other Notes: Upside is sky-high, but like all young pitchers, consistency is a key … work load is another issue; he’s likely to have innings capped around 180 … look no further than Verlander for proof that the right SPs can make a big splash right away … Verlander went 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA his rookie year after spending just one year in the minors
Verdict: Add in all league formats, even shallow mixed leagues
Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Status: Making Major League debut Saturday
Key Stats: Went 3-3 with a 1.49 ERA at Triple-A Gwinnett
What to Watch For: Acclomation to majors
Other Notes: Had 90 strikeouts in 66.2 innings at the time of his callup … burst onto the scene at High-A Myrtle Beach last season, then carried it to dominate the Arizona Fall League … drew big-time praise from manager Bobby Cox and current Atlanta Braves this spring for his immense talent and major league readiness … is a prime candidate to hit the ground running and put up great numbers right away
Verdict: Scramble to the waiver wire, make significant bids for his services
John Smoltz, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Status: Working his way back from shoulder surgery
Key Stats: Has 210 wins, 3.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in career
What to Watch For: How he fares in next 2 rehab starts
Other Notes: We know exactly what he can do … even in a worst case scenario, pencil the 41-year-old in for a sub-3.50 ERA, quality K rates and his fair share of wins … could make 15 or more starts, so still has value, especially for those who can stash him on their DL now
Verdict: Add to reserve list now, reap the benefits soon
J.A. Happ, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Status: Taking Phils’ No. 5 starter job and running with it
Key Stats: 2-0 with 2.46 ERA in 3 starts
What to Watch For: Stamina, how he handles bigger work load
Other Notes: Is ready for this role, and the Phillies know it … minor league numbers suggest a reliable fantasy option for the rest of the season … in 528 minor league innings, allowed just 440 hits and struck out 545 batters … has also spent parts of 3 seasons in the majors, recording a solid 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP
Verdict: Add him now; there are many more quality starts in his future
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, New York Mets
Status: Finding his stride after rocky April
Key Stats: Has allowed 3 ER or less in 7 straight starts
What to Watch For: Strikeout rate, has just 23 Ks in 55.2 innings
Other Notes: Is among most desirable starting pitchers on the waiver wire, even with weak K rate … works deep into games, vies for wins in every start, calls pitcher’s park Citi Field home and is backed by star-studded lineup … went 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 6 May starts
Verdict: Determine how important Ks are in your league, then add
Kelvim Escobar, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
Status: Set to make ‘09 debut Saturday
Key Stats: Went 18-7 with a 3.40 ERA in last full season
What to Watch For: Bum shoulder, how long he can stay healthy
Other Notes: Really offers nice potential as a buy-low injury risk … for his career, has averaged 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings and allowed opponents to hit for just a .254 average … hasn’t pitched since 2007 with shoulder issues
Verdict: Think about your risk aversion; chances are, Escobar is worth a flier
Jeff Niemann, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Status: Coming off complete game gem vs. KC
Key Stats: Is 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA in his last 5 starts
What to Watch For: Better consistency
Other Notes: Is still very prone to some hiccups and short outings … has 3 starts this season of 3.1 innings or less … with that in mind, monitor matchups closely and play him against ligther hitting lineups … seven of his 10 starts have come on the road, and he’s still managed quality numbers
Verdict: A good matchup play and spot starter in daily leagues
Brandon McCarthy, RHP, Texas Rangers
Status: On a good run with 3 straight quality starts
Key Stats: Went 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA in May
What to Watch For: Flyball ratio, if he can keep the ball in the park
Other Notes: Has almost twice as many fly ball outs (128) as ground balls (66) … that’s a worrisome number at Arlington Park, which yields 10th-most home runs in baseball
Verdict: Take a wait-and-see approach, but keep him on your radar
Josh Outman, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Status: Impressing since rejoining A’s rotation
Key Stats: Has 3-0 record, .204 BAA
What to Watch For: Quality starts - has 5 straight to his credit
Other Notes: A forgotten man with all the hype over rookie teammates Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson … came to Oakland last season from Philadelphia in the Joe Blanton deal … had a remarkable minor league track record with a 35-18 career record and 2.99 ERA in 4 seasons
Verdict: A must-add in AL-only leagues; mixed leaguers can afford to wait
Carl Pavano, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Status: Coming off superb May performance
Key Stats: 5-1 with a 3.60 ERA last month
What to Watch For: Health - made just 26 starts from 2005-08
Other Notes: Veteran is hittable, but can also minimize damage by avoiding big innings … if opponents batting average can stay in the .260-.270 range, he is worth, at the least, spot start consideration
Verdict: Watch how he May successes carry over to June
