22
Jun
2009

Fantasy: Top June Performances and Storylines

Posted by Dustin Hockensmith

The end of a season is just about the only time where fans and fantasy owners can sit back and appreciate what their favorite players have accomplished. All things are equal then, so all numbers count the same. But, up until that point, there’s an ebb and flow to every player’s season, where hot streaks, cold streaks and fundamental changes should alter how he is viewed by fantasy owners.

There are all kinds of ways to split the numbers and get a deeper sense for a player’s long-term value. One of the easiest, most common ways is to take periodic snapshots of his production. Constantly take looks at the last seven days, the last two weeks, this month, last month, before the All-Star break, after the All-Star break. The numbers and the trends reveal stories and tell you where players have been and where they could ultimately be going.

Season numbers, especially right now with such small sample sizes, can mask what’s really happening. Players who were ice cold to start the year can heat up and easily be worth more than their season numbers suggest. Similarly, players who started off hot still have owners feeling all warm and fuzzy inside, even though they’ve steadily run out of steam.

We’ll take a snapshot of just this month alone, but we’ll also try our best to tell the stories behind the numbers. Here are some June storylines that we think fantasy owners should know …

Your American League RBI leaders in June …
… are Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Lyle Overbay and Los Angeles Angels outfielder Juan Rivera, with 18 apiece.

Overbay is quietly having himself a nice, little season. In typical Overbay fashion, he’s not blowing anyone away in the power department (9 HRs), but he’s ripping doubles and driving in runs. His stat line is shaping up to be a useful .280-25-100-70-0, which merits ownership in more than 8 percent of ESPN.com leagues.

June is just part of the story for Rivera, one of fantasy’s most popular waiver wire pickups over the past two weeks. He’s got 18 RBIs in 17 games this month, but he’s hitting .380 with 8 home runs and 24 RBIs over his last 24 games. When Rivera is healthy and playing everyday, he’s an excellent source of cheap run production and 30-home run pop.

McCutchen’s big splash
Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen made sure fans got over the team’s decision to ship reigning All-Star and Gold Glove winner Nate McLouth to Atlanta. McCutchen has impressed with his work ethic, baseball smarts, speed and bat control, and the numbers have warranted serious fantasy consideration. The 22-year-old hasn’t even been in Pittsburgh the entire month, and he leads the majors with 5 triples and is tied for eighth with 26 hits. All in all, McCutchen is hitting .333 with 1 home run, 13 RBIs, 2 stolen bases and 13 runs scored in his first 17 games.

Pujols reigns supreme
We don’t need any more proof that St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, but we’re getting it anyway. Pujols leads the majors with 10 home runs and 26 RBIs this month, putting him right back in the hunt for a National League triple crown. He leads the league in homers (26) and RBIs (68) this season, while steadily compiling a .328 average that should put him in the conversation for a batting title. Perhaps most impressively of all, Pujols has 52 walks to just 27 strikeouts and a Major League-leading .445 on-base percentage.

Return of Scott Podsednik
Thought Chicago White Sox outfielder Scott Podsednik’s career was finished? You’re in the majority. Pods is back and taking full advantage of regular left fielder Carlos Quentin’s trip to the disabled list with 27 hits, a .333 average and seven stolen bases in seven attempts this month. Who knows how long this can last — we don’t expect his legs to stay underneath him much longer — but enjoy it as long as it does.

Patient and powerful Pablo
There’s not a whole lot conventional about San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval. He’s a round 5-foot-11 and 246 pounds. He swings at everything, and he never walks. Yet, at just 22 years old, he’s a .340 career hitter. In June, the high contact rate is meeting improved patience and much better power, helping Sandoval finally start to follow through on all the preseason sleeper hype. Sandoval had a combined three home runs and eight walks (to 22 strikeouts) in April and May, but has already hit five homers and walked eight times in June.

Quiet-Lee getting on track
A similar story can be told about Chicago Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee. Like most of his Cubs teammates, Lee couldn’t get much of anything going in the season’s first two months. The 33-year-old had gotten his fair share of base hits, but he had also seriously disappointed his fantasy owners with another major power outage. June has been a season-changing kind of month for him, though, especially the past week. Lee has six homers and 17 RBIs this month, including four and nine, respectively, in his last four games. Lee had just five homers and 19 RBIs combined in April and May.

All’s well that ends well
There are few players in baseball as bipolar in their production as Colorado Rockies third baseman Ian Stewart. He has difference-making power that could translate into perennial 40-homer seasons playing at Coors Field, but he goes through epic peaks and valleys that make him extremely hard to trust in fantasy. Stewart has big home run (6) and RBI (17) totals this month, but the huge majority of production came in a handful of games. Fifteen of Stewart’s 17 RBIs came in four individual games, and he had just one game where he drove in a run without the benefit of a homer.

Can’t stop the slide
Struggling Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins hasn’t fared any better in June, continuing his skid into the summertime with a .195 average. For the season, the 30-year-old is hitting just .217 with 6 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Rollins does have a tendency to save the best for last — his best statistical month is September — so not all is lost. Know that fact and try to scoop him up low around mid-July.

Slowey reaches 10 wins
Proof that wins aren’t always the best measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness, Minnesota Twins right-hander Kevin Slowey has three victories this month to join Toronto’s Roy Halladay as the game’s only 10-game winners. Slowey has been significantly less than dominant with a 4.04 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP and 12 home runs allowed in 14 starts, but he’s working deep into enough games, avoiding major damage and getting enough support to be on the right side of 10 decisions.

Johan showing signs of weakness
Even at his most dominant point this season, New York Mets left-hander Johan Santana still had a little to be desired in fantasy leagues. As unhittable as he was, Santana wasn’t getting enough run support to reel off as many victories as he deserved. Santana has combined hard luck with some struggles of his own this month in going 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA and just 11 strikeouts in 23.1 innings (four starts). Four of Santana’s five losses on the season have come when he’s posted Quality Starts; the other was a 15-0 shellacking at the hands of the New York Yankees on June 14.

No run support for Vazquez
Quietly, the Atlanta Braves’ acquisition of right-hander Javier Vazquez has been one of the better deals of the offseason. Vazquez has been strong in his return to the National League, posting a 3.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 117 strikeouts in 99 innings. Problem is, Vazquez has just a 5-6 record, including a 1-2 mark in June and a 1-3 mark in his last six starts. His hardest luck came in his first two June starts when he got just one run of support in going 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA, 19 strikeouts and zero walks in 14 innings in losses to the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pitching like an ace again
Boston Red Sox right-hander Josh Beckett has regained the form that made him one of the game’s best, most productive pitchers. Beckett is 3-1 this month and 6-1 in his last nine starts, eight of which have been Quality Starts. He’s really picked up steam since May 23, allowing zero earned runs in four of his six starts since then. For the season, Beckett is 8-3 with a 3.74 ERA and 88 strikeouts 91.1 innings.

Surprisingly dominant relievers
Huston Street and David Aardsma are rewarding fantasy owners handsomely this month, producing unexpectedly impressive stat lines. No closer has gotten as many save opportunities as Street’s nine this month, and Street has converted eight of them and picked up one victory. Aardsma, on the other hand, has recorded six saves while making leaps and bounds in his strikeout-to-walk ratio. Aardsma has 15 Ks, two walks and a 0.00 ERA in eight June appearances.

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