29
Jun
2009

Fantasy: Ten Players Bouncing Back in 2009

Posted by Dustin Hockensmith

Fans and fantasy owners can be remarkably short-sighted.

In trying to project for an upcoming season, the tendency is to look at last season’s results and assume they are going to repeat themselves. Understandably so, too; the fresher information is the safest approach to evaluating players and the best way to feel good about the picks you’ve made.

It takes some guts to reach for a rookie or a player coming off an injury plagued season. We can’t look at the statistics and feel safe in our decision-making, so we tend to avoid those players and only look at them when prices are absolutely right.

This is most true for aging veterans. We don’t give a 33-year-old coming off a rocky season much of a chance to bounce back and have a career year. We would prefer to avoid those players and consider them washed up and no longer worth our time in fantasy.

The “warm and fuzzy” factor is big because we all want players on our fantasy rosters who excite us. To capture that feeling, good numbers from the previous season are a near must.

Every season, though, there is a group of players who defy expectations by making unprecedented improvements. These kinds of pleasant surprises are the glue that binds our fantasy rosters together; the draft day bargains who provide big-time bang for the buck.

Here are 10 such players …

Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees: Fantasy owners didn’t think that The Captain’s career was over. They thought it could be over and that he may no longer deserve serious fantasy consideration. Jeter had a fine season in 2008, but he put up pedestrian numbers with 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases. He had to prove himself again in those categories to re-claim his status as one of fantasy’s elite shortstops, and so far he has. Jeter already has nine homers and 17 stolen bases, while looking like a sure bet for another 200-hit, .300-average season.

Michael Young, 3B/SS, Texas Rangers: Young was in a similar position to Jeter entering this season, with his power dwindling and only a superior batting average remaining in his fantasy arsenal. His move to third base also clouded the picture, but it looks like a blessing since Young takes less of a pounding on defense and can put more energy into his offensive game. The 32-year-old should do his usual with a .300+ average, but he’s also got 10 homers already - just two off his 2008 season.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: Fielder had an OK season in 2008, but fell short of lofty expectations that come with a 50-home run season. That lingering disappointment made Fielder a great value in fantasy drafts, where he was costing fewer auction dollars and lasting later on draft boards. By most statistical measures, Fielder is leaps and bounds ahead of his sluggish start to the ‘08 season, but that’s especially true in his RBI count. Fielder, who is second in the Majors with 73 RBIs, didn’t drive in his 73rd run of the ‘08 season until Aug. 13.

Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: Early in his career, Crawford was pegged as a future 40-40 type player, a fantasy owner’s dream come true. We waited years for Crawford’s superior skill set to yield a more respectable home run count, and it simply never came. That fact, combined with a finger injury that limited him to 109 games last season, made Crawford a forgotten man this season. Even if he’s plateaued as a 15-home run hitter, Crawford has become baseball’s best basestealer (the Major League leader with 39) while putting up respectable numbers in every other rotisserie category.

Curtis Granderson, OF, Detroit Tigers: Granderson has blown past expectations of another 20-20 season and thrown his name into the ring for 30-30. He’s moved to the middle of the Tigers’ lineup, so his objectives have become more of a run producer’s and less of a table setter’s. Granderson is hitting for more power (18 HRs) and driving in more runs (43 RBIs), but he’s also on target for a career-high in stolen bases. Granderson strikes out too much to add a .300 average to his arsenal, but the rest of his game is that of an upper tier fantasy outfielder.

Victor Martinez, C/1B, Cleveland Indians: Faith was lost in Martinez’s ability to stay healthy; not his ability to flat-out rake. The Cleveland star had been swiftly knocked off his perch as fantasy’s No. 1 catcher, but he’s fighting back to try and re-claim it. Martinez is hitting .321, leading all catchers with 57 RBIs, and erasing doubts in his power with 14 homers in 290 at-bats. While fellow backstops Geovany Soto, Russell Martin and Brian McCann have fallen off, Martinez has joined Minnesota’s Joe Mauer as head of the catchers class.

Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners: King Felix, still just 23 years old, has continued a steady trend of improvement and gotten even closer to his massive potential this season. He posted sound numbers in 2008, but didn’t make a quantum leap in large part because of his team’s inability to compete. Hernandez has improved in virtually all statistical measures, but the biggest benefit to his fantasy game has come from improvements in the team around him. Hernandez had a lowly 9-11 record last season, but barring a second-half tailspin, he should reach 15 victories (he’s 8-3 now) to go along with his current 2.54 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

David Aardsma, RP, Seattle Mariners: Aardsma can’t even be called a preseason sleeper; he was in more of a hibernation or coma. Things ended badly for him as a middle reliever in Boston, when he suffered a groin injury and fell apart in the second half of last season. Even at just 27 years old, there was no indication that Aardsma would ever warrant fantasy consideration. But, through the the struggles of closer-turned-starter-turned-closer-turned-starter Brandon Morrow, Aardsma got his big chance to close games. He’s held up his end of the bargain, too, especially this month with a 0.00 ERA, 8 saves and a 20-to-4 K-to-BB ratio in 9 innings of work.

Michael Cuddyer, OF, Minnesota Twins: Cuddyer has never been a fantasy star, but he’s always had the potential to be a nice role player, a No. 4 or No. 5 outfielder type. Most were expecting a big breakout following a 2006 season in which Cuddyer hit .284 with 24 home runs and 109 RBIs, but it never came. This season, Cuddyer is approaching that same form with 11 homers and 38 RBIs in 67 games. He finds himself in the heart of Minnesota’s lineup once again, which should translate into another run at 20 homers and 100 RBIs.

George Sherrill, RP, Baltimore Orioles: Sherrill has not only rebounded from some adversity in the second half of last season, but from a rocky start to this one. Orioles manager Dave Trembley said he would deploy a closer-by-committee on May 4, and since that day, Sherrill has allowed one earned run in 19 innings. He’s also grabbed the closer’s job by the horns once and for all by going a perfect 12-for-12 in saves over that same stretch. The hot streak suddenly has Sherrill among the top half of fantasy closers with a 2.05 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 16 saves.

Comments

  1. Good list.

    I’ve also been surprised by Todd Helton, who’s been quietly fantastic.

     
  2. Dustin Hockensmith (June 30th, 2009 at 11:06 am)

    That’s a great point. Nothing was expected of Helton, and he might end up hitting .320 with 100 RBIs.

     

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