Ah, the rookie. The most tantalizing, and frustrating, group of players in fantasy. Hard evidence suggests that a very select few will make an impact in their first seasons, but owners still can’t help but go nuts for them in their quests for cheap upside.

To find value in our fantasy rookies, we look for a collection of three attributes:

1.) Talent, obviously. And not only talent, but in what areas does it project in fantasy? A couple of premium tools, say power and baserunning, generally allow a prospect to overcome inexperience and produce early.

2.) Polish. Often, this trumps overall talent, in terms of making an immediate impact. Mature rookies, especially those who have spent several seasons in the minors, adjust quickly and produce with consistency.

3.) Opportunity. All the talent in the world means very little if there are no jobs to fill. The first step for a prospect is grabbing a roster spot. The next is earning enough confidence from his manager and prominent roles on his team.

As we sift through the list of prospects, all three factors must be considered. A mega-talent with little chance to start the year in the majors might be ranked behind, say, a more polished rookie with decent skills and a clear path to a starting job.

And that leads us to another group of prospects, the ones who start the year in the minors, but are clearly destined to make big-league rosters this summer.

We like Cleveland Indians catcher Carlos Santana, Texas Rangers’ first baseman Justin Smoak, San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey and Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings to follow this path.

These are tremendous players who will likely get the chance to find a rhythm in the minors, then hit the ground running when they’re called up. Their ’short bursts’ can make big differences in a fantasy team’s late push for a league championship.

Here are our top 15 rookies to start the 2010 season, as well as a handful of players likely to make their mark in 2011.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: Likely to land not only a starting gig, but a prominent place in the Braves’ lineup. Has just the right recipe for early fantasy success: Size, strength and a high baseball IQ.

2. Neftali Feliz, SP, Texas Rangers: Has an electric arm featuring free-and-easy velocity and a plus-changeup. Was dominant as a reliever last season, now makes the transition to Major League starter.

3. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals: The phenom. Temper expectations, even as you’re watching his 100+ mph fastball and hammer curve tear up the minors. Should arrive in Washington this summer.

4. Brett Wallace, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: Gifted offensive player with his third organization in two seasons. Can handle the bat, but watch how his power develops. True fantasy value may not come until 2011.

5. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers: Gets more kudos for his defensive prowess than for his offense. Still, should be a solid contributor along the lines of Rangers’ SS Elvis Andrus circa 2009.

6. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers: Is the Tigers’ likely starter in center field, even at just 22 years old. Is a good athlete and a good hitter, who could hit .270-10-60-70-20 if given 500 at-bats.

7. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians: Get to know this switch-hitting catcher and reigning Eastern League MVP. Could have an opening in Cleveland after hitting 23 home runs and leading the EL in slugging (.530) in ‘09.

8. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers: Comparisons to former Rangers’ first baseman Mark Teixeira are legit. Big league arrival isn’t far off, just needs an injury or another horrid start by Chris Davis.

9. Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles: Begins the season in the O’s rotation after going 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 8 big league starts last season. Good arm, good chance for a solid first full season.

10. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: Most likely starts the season in the minors, but shouldn’t have a problem hitting his way onto the Giants’ roster. Is an excellent athlete with batting title potential.

11. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: A new name to the fantasy community. Is knocking on the door of a big-league gig; has five-tool potential if Rays let him in.

12. Wade Davis, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: A forgotten man, at least among fantasy baseball’s 2010 rookie class. Has six pretty good Major League starts under his belt and a solid, not spectacular, minor league track record.

13. Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland Athletics: No doubting the physical talent in his 6-foot-6, 240-pound frame. Showed good five-tool potential in his ‘09 breakout season, skills that should translate immediately to fantasy.

14. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Franciso Giants: Star is fading after so-so radar readings last season. Still, with a 27-5 career minor league record, the kid can pitch and could represent a solid upside pick in fantasy.

15. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland Athletics: Home run potential alone makes him worth a look in fantasy. May or may not start the year in Oakland, but should wind up there by midseason to provide a sorely needed impact bat.

Better luck next year …

Jesus Montero, C/DH, New York Yankees: Young slugger with a bright, bright future. Good luck finding a teammate or manager who doesn’t rave about his bat. Expect him in the Bronx in 2011.

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins: Has virtually no shot at wearing a big league uniform in 2010. But has the “light tower power” to make his name worth knowing. Could be the next big thing in 2011.

Dayan Viciedo, 3B, Chicago White Sox: Looking more like a 2011 candidate for the White Sox’ roster. Made a solid debut last season after defecting from Cuba, but was blocked by Gordon Beckham’s move to 3B.

Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds: Another Cuban defector with sky-high upside. Is raw, but armed with free and easy 100 mph gas from the left side. Command issues are the knock on him.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: Struggled out of the gates in ‘09, then went on a tear after a promotion to Double-A Altoona. The real Alvarez will emerge this season for the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate in Indianapolis.

Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners: Polished hitter making the transition from collegiate first baseman to professional outfielder. Unless power develops, Todd Helton type production looks like the best-case scenario.

Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: Just needs an opportunity, one that could come if or when Jayson Werth, a free agent after the 2010 season, leaves town. Power should come this season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.