In many fantasy baseball leagues, the deadline to make crucial keeper decisions like the one below is rapidly approaching. We wanted to answer Chris’ question on the site because a.) we want to roll out the red carpet for our first reader question in weeks, and b.) the thought process behind this keeper decision could certainly apply to others.

Take a look and feel free to contact us with any tricky roster decisions of your own.

Hello again,

I must say I find your site extremely informative, insightful and valuable! Having said that I’d love some advice on a trade I’ve been offer in a standard head to head yahoo keeper league..I am keeping the max# of 7, mostly offense, Wieters, Gonzo, Kinsler, Longoria, Holliday, Werth and also deciding between Hamels and Carpenter.. I have been offered Verlander for Werth.. I’m a little scared of his 2008 off year but know his potential is huge.. Any help would be great..thanks!

We think that, yes, Justin Verlander is trustworthy enough to repeat his 2009 success. The young fireballer did struggle during the ‘08 season, but he has three other campaigns with at least 17 wins under his belt. And besides that, few starters offer the type of reliability that Verlander does, in terms of reaching key benchmarks: 3.50 ERA, 200 innings, 200 strikeouts, 15 wins.

With that said, our move would still be to keep Werth over Verlander. Since starting pitchers are inherently more risky, then why not keep the more valuable, more sure thing in Werth and roll the dice with Hamels or Carpenter? We like Hamels over Carpenter in a keeper league, by the way. Focus on starting pitching early in the draft and identify a number of undervalued starters to monitor throughout.

If the draft ends and starting pitching is still a weakness, THEN take a look at dealing a hitter for a starting pitcher. Our best advice is to retain as much sheer value as you possibly can on your keeper list now and worry about roster balance and adjustments later.

Before shooting down the trade offer, however, consider one other option. How good is the next best position player on your roster? If he’s a worthy keeper, then using Werth to upgrade your pitching staff becomes a better option. In essence, that decision would come down to how big the dropoff is from Werth to another hitter vs. how big the upgrade is from Hamels to Verlander.

If there is any question or hesitation, err on the side of maximum roster value and choose Werth over Verlander.