Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Overview: Longtime contributor at third base after making his Major League debut as a 19-year-old in Pittsburgh … has dealt with injuries in his career with Chicago, including a left shoulder injury that limited him to 82 games last season … when healthy, is one of the game’s most consistent RBI guys … has six 100-RBI seasons and four with at least 30 HRs.
2009 numbers: .317 avg, 15 HRs, 65 RBIs, 46 runs, 2 SBs in 82 games
Key splits and trends: After a run of three straight 30-homer seasons, has fallen short of that mark in each of the last three … has fallen short of 140 games played in three of the last five campaigns … was as good as ever after coming off the disabled list in July … hit .310 with 11 HRs in the second half of the season.
Strengths: Is a prototypical run producer with 120-RBI upside … has good power and calls a hitter-friendly ballpark home … is also a rarity in that he can add a .300+ average to the 30 HR-100 RBI package.
Weaknesses: Is more prone to injury than your average third baseman … hard to rely on 150+ games, so it’s hard to pencil him in for .300-30-100 … home run total is iffy; hasn’t hit the 30-HR mark since ‘06.
Bold prediction for 2010: Power and injury trends continue; hits .300 with 21 HRs and 85 RBIs in 125 games.

Quentin is an OPS machine and a legitimate 40-home run hitter when he’s healthy, but the fact is, health has never been a slam dunk for him. Even at the tail end of his breakout 2008 campaign, Quentin managed to smash a bat against his right wrist and land on the disabled list.

Heel, wrist, shoulder and foot injuries have been issues throughout his Major League career, and oh by the way, Quentin is a magnet for the baseball when he’s at the plate. He’s been hit by 54 pitches in 367 career games, including 15 times (7th most in baseball) in just 99 games last season. Add that to the list of injury risks.

But, as with any injury risk, there’s a corresponding ‘discount’ on his services on draft day. Take the fear of injuries out of the equation, and Quentin would be a fringe top-50 player. As it is, he’s lasting into the 11th and 12th rounds of standard fantasy drafts. His fantasy game, injuries or not, stands out in that territory.

You can count on one hand the number of players with 35-homer potential available after the first five rounds, so Quentin
certainly has value potential. At that stage of the draft, Quentin could miss 40 games, hit 30 home runs and STILL justify the draft choice. But, there’s room for so much more.

We don’t recommend reaching for Quentin, but taking him anywhere leading up to the 100th overall pick is well worth the gamble. Power comes at a hefty premium at all stages of the draft; taking a risk to obtain it late is a wise play.

Fantasy owners are being a little more realistic. They’re looking beyond the longshot return of Nathan in the face of a gloomy prognosis, and instead, taking a look at which players on the roster could serve as adequate replacements.

Start with the hometown media, where a Pioneer-Press survey yielded a couple of frontrunners for the job. Twins fans, according to the poll, most wanted to see submariner Pat Neshek take on closing duties, with big right-hander Jon Rauch and lefty starter Francisco Liriano closely behind.

Rauch is the most obvious internal candidate to take a flier on in fantasy. He’s big, nasty and intimidating and he has a little experience closing games with the Washington Nationals. As Tom Powers of the Pioneer-Press points out, though, Rauch’s out pitch — his curveball — is a rarity amongst closers.

Neshek, on the other hand, is a less conventional ninth-inning option who, at best, should serve as part of a closer committee. Health is also a question mark as he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2008 and hasn’t pitched in nearly two years. His style and stuff are similar to Oakland Athletics’ reliever Brad Ziegler, who enjoyed a nice, but brief, run as his team’s closer in ‘08.

The Nesheks and Zieglers of the world, sooner or later, almost always give way to more prototypical closers like Rauch and Andrew Bailey, who permanently displaced Ziegler in Oakland last season.

The Twins are exploring all internal candidates — including Rauch, Neshek, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier — and evaluating trade options. All the while, Nathan’s decision — to have season-ending surgery or not — looms over the Twins and fantasy owners alike. One of the game’s best, most reliable closers is likely to be on the shelf, and with no surefire replacement ready to step in.

Until the season begins and the Twins’ bullpen shapes up in Nathan’s absence, fantasy owners are likely to have many more questions than answers. A betting man would put his chips down on Rauch for now, but with the understanding that a committee situation or trade are more likely scenarios than Rauch serving as a full-time closer.

Nick Markakis, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Overview: Played in all but one of his team’s games last year … just fell short of the .300 and 20-homer plateaus … consistent producer, which is a big upside in fantasy, but isn’t spectacular in any one category … got off to a red-hot start last year with a .460 OBP in April, but is historically a much better hitter in the second half (.286/.311 career split) … has four full, productive MLB seasons under his belt and is still just 26 years old.
2009 numbers: .293 avg, 18 HRs, 101 RBIs, 94 runs, 6 SBs in 161 games
Key splits and trends: Has been ultra consistent, but key numbers bottomed out in ‘09 … HR and SB totals fell for the 3rd straight season, and his BB rate tumbled from 14 percent to 8 percent … hit .329 against NYY and BOS and .300 vs. TOR.
Strengths: Consistent, everyday player who isn’t taken out as a defensive liability late in games … still has room to improve … has gap power, but not home run power … is solid five-category contributor with 100-RBI potential.
Weaknesses: Plate discipline took a major step back, going from 99 walks to just 56 last year … hasn’t developed the power stroke many expected and has been far less active on the basepaths.
Bold prediction for 2010: No shock here; does what he always does with a .295 average, 19 HRs and 95 RBIs.

Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
Overview: Surprise leader among second basemen with 36 HRs and 108 RBIs last season … is a former first-round draft choice who has far exceeded expectations by developing premium power … controls the strike zone and is an OBP and OPS machine … fantasy owners are skeptical of his abilities, but is closer to ‘the real deal’ than single-season fluke.
2009 numbers: .286 avg, 36 HRs, 108 RBIs, 103 runs, 6 SBs in 158 games
Key splits and trends: Had more home runs in April last year (5) than he had all of 2008 (2) … struggled through the summer with a .252 average from June-August … unusual power approach rather than stereotypical scrappy second baseman … successfully converted doubles into HRs … had 47 doubles in 2007, his last full, healthy season.
Strengths: Has unparalleled power for a 2B … has .300-30-100 potential, rare for his position … can be had in the later rounds as owners will be weary of his production … does not strike out often.
Weaknesses: There’s a better than average chance his ‘09 power numbers were a fluke, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be productive … had more home runs last year than in his previous four years combined … rarely draws walks … doesn’t bring much on the base paths.
Bold prediction for 2010: Will justify his inclusion on many preseason bust lists with a so-so .280-20-80 season.

Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers
Overview: Dynamic, five-tool outfielder with a checkered past and a recent history of injury troubles … had surgery on his abdomen last season and missed time with back and groin injuries … already has a bruised shoulder early in spring training but not considered serious … was still on pace for over 100 RBIs last season despite playing just 89 games.
2009 numbers: .268 avg, 10 HRs, 54 RBIs, 43 runs in 89 games
Key splits and trends: In one of the friendliest parks for a hitter, Hamilton surprisingly just hit .226 at home … when finally healthy in August, Hamilton tore the cover off the ball, hitting .342 and driving in 17, but had just one long ball … continued a strong trend of hitting in clutch situations, with a .314 avg. with RISP.
Strengths: Few can match Hamilton’s raw power, which he showcased in the 2008 Home Run Derby with 28 homers in the first round … hits well away from home and is a strong run producer … finally appears to have his head on straight.
Weaknesses: Always have to wonder about a drug relapse … has a short track record of success, and it’s been marred by recent injuries … already has a bruised left shoulder in spring training.
Bold prediction for 2010: Power numbers, and health, return and he’ll make another run at 30 HRs and 120 RBIs.

We liken the potential for his first season to a poor man’s version of Dexter Fowler in ‘09. Fowler had his moments, for sure, but never truly made an impact in fantasy. The difference between him and Jackson, though, is that Fowler runs better, has more power and should hit for a higher average.

A gloomy projection for Jackson? Sure. And considering that Jackson is likely to start in center field and hit leadoff for the Tigers, we may be too harsh. Scouring news headlines, especially the ones regarding young players, we look for glowing commentary from coaches and teammates. We didn’t exactly get that from Lynn Henning at The Detroit News.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland likes where Jackson is as a defensive center fielder, he’s just not sure when, if ever, Jackson will develop as a hitter.

We have our doubts, too. And, we don’t expect Jackson to last as the team’s leadoff hitter. Does that mean Jackson is irrelevant in fantasy this season? Of course not. But, like Fowler, his handful of promising moments will be lost in a sea of inexperience and inconsistency.

The most impressive Heyward blast of the spring was summed up best by Braves’ pitcher Tim Hudson, as told to the AJC. Heyward worked a full count after falling behind 0-2, then launched the payoff pitch well beyond the wall in right field.

“If he’d have just gotten a hit or a walk it would have been a great at-bat,” Hudson said. “And he goes and puts one in the trees out there. I mean, it just adds to the legend.”

In fantasy, yeah, it’s fun to get caught up in the Heyward legend. But, it’s important to note that each one of these fabled blasts inches Heyward closer to an everyday job in right field. It’s not just gossip or folk lore, these are real, meaningful moments that will help dictate Heyward’s role in 2010.

Heyward has won his teammates and coaches over and again, and now it’s just a matter of Braves’ management reaching the same kind of comfort level in their prized prospect.

Heyward is big, strong, patient, mature, advanced, polished and powerful for his age. As flattering as the adjectives are to describe Heyward, the comparisons are probably more flattering. The most recent is surefire Hall of Famer Ken Griffey, only Heyward could actually be a more complete hitter than Junior Griffey was at the same age.

The point is, with every new tall tale and every new beaming remark from a teammate or coach, Heyward further cements his place in the Braves’ lineup. At this stage, we would not only be shocked if Heyward DIDN’T make the team, but if he didn’t start and hit right in the middle of the Braves’ lineup.

Take a look and feel free to contact us with any tricky roster decisions of your own.

Hello again,

I must say I find your site extremely informative, insightful and valuable! Having said that I’d love some advice on a trade I’ve been offer in a standard head to head yahoo keeper league..I am keeping the max# of 7, mostly offense, Wieters, Gonzo, Kinsler, Longoria, Holliday, Werth and also deciding between Hamels and Carpenter.. I have been offered Verlander for Werth.. I’m a little scared of his 2008 off year but know his potential is huge.. Any help would be great..thanks!

We think that, yes, Justin Verlander is trustworthy enough to repeat his 2009 success. The young fireballer did struggle during the ‘08 season, but he has three other campaigns with at least 17 wins under his belt. And besides that, few starters offer the type of reliability that Verlander does, in terms of reaching key benchmarks: 3.50 ERA, 200 innings, 200 strikeouts, 15 wins.

With that said, our move would still be to keep Werth over Verlander. Since starting pitchers are inherently more risky, then why not keep the more valuable, more sure thing in Werth and roll the dice with Hamels or Carpenter? We like Hamels over Carpenter in a keeper league, by the way. Focus on starting pitching early in the draft and identify a number of undervalued starters to monitor throughout.

If the draft ends and starting pitching is still a weakness, THEN take a look at dealing a hitter for a starting pitcher. Our best advice is to retain as much sheer value as you possibly can on your keeper list now and worry about roster balance and adjustments later.

Before shooting down the trade offer, however, consider one other option. How good is the next best position player on your roster? If he’s a worthy keeper, then using Werth to upgrade your pitching staff becomes a better option. In essence, that decision would come down to how big the dropoff is from Werth to another hitter vs. how big the upgrade is from Hamels to Verlander.

If there is any question or hesitation, err on the side of maximum roster value and choose Werth over Verlander.

Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
Overview: Lanky flamethrower bounced back from a dismal 2008 season to win 19 games and finish third in the AL Cy Young race last season … led Major League Baseball with 269 strikeouts and was tied for the MLB lead in wins … tossed more innings than any other pitcher in baseball and averaged an AL-best 10.1 Ks per 9.
2009 numbers: 19-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 269 Ks in 240 IP
Key splits and trends: Dominant in day games last year, going 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA … much better in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, where his 2.81 ERA was more than a point better than his road ERA (4.04) … stats were nearly identical before and after the All-Star break … take down ‘08 season out of the equation, and Verlander has averaged 18 wins per season.
Strengths: Has arguably the most electric fastball in the game, often reaching the high 90s and sometimes even touching 100 mph … no durability concerns, as he has tossed over 200 innings in each of the last four seasons … pitches deep into ballgames and threw three complete games in 2009.
Weaknesses: Was inconsistent down the stretch in the middle of the AL Central pennant race … year-to-year consistency as well, going 11-17 in 2008 and striking out 106 fewer batters … heavy workload in 2009 may limit Verlander’s strength and stamina down the stretch in 2010.
Bold prediction for 2010: Will be in the hunt for a Cy Young for a second straight year, this time registering his first 20-win season.