We liken the potential for his first season to a poor man’s version of Dexter Fowler in ‘09. Fowler had his moments, for sure, but never truly made an impact in fantasy. The difference between him and Jackson, though, is that Fowler runs better, has more power and should hit for a higher average.

A gloomy projection for Jackson? Sure. And considering that Jackson is likely to start in center field and hit leadoff for the Tigers, we may be too harsh. Scouring news headlines, especially the ones regarding young players, we look for glowing commentary from coaches and teammates. We didn’t exactly get that from Lynn Henning at The Detroit News.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland likes where Jackson is as a defensive center fielder, he’s just not sure when, if ever, Jackson will develop as a hitter.

We have our doubts, too. And, we don’t expect Jackson to last as the team’s leadoff hitter. Does that mean Jackson is irrelevant in fantasy this season? Of course not. But, like Fowler, his handful of promising moments will be lost in a sea of inexperience and inconsistency.

The most impressive Heyward blast of the spring was summed up best by Braves’ pitcher Tim Hudson, as told to the AJC. Heyward worked a full count after falling behind 0-2, then launched the payoff pitch well beyond the wall in right field.

“If he’d have just gotten a hit or a walk it would have been a great at-bat,” Hudson said. “And he goes and puts one in the trees out there. I mean, it just adds to the legend.”

In fantasy, yeah, it’s fun to get caught up in the Heyward legend. But, it’s important to note that each one of these fabled blasts inches Heyward closer to an everyday job in right field. It’s not just gossip or folk lore, these are real, meaningful moments that will help dictate Heyward’s role in 2010.

Heyward has won his teammates and coaches over and again, and now it’s just a matter of Braves’ management reaching the same kind of comfort level in their prized prospect.

Heyward is big, strong, patient, mature, advanced, polished and powerful for his age. As flattering as the adjectives are to describe Heyward, the comparisons are probably more flattering. The most recent is surefire Hall of Famer Ken Griffey, only Heyward could actually be a more complete hitter than Junior Griffey was at the same age.

The point is, with every new tall tale and every new beaming remark from a teammate or coach, Heyward further cements his place in the Braves’ lineup. At this stage, we would not only be shocked if Heyward DIDN’T make the team, but if he didn’t start and hit right in the middle of the Braves’ lineup.

Take a look and feel free to contact us with any tricky roster decisions of your own.

Hello again,

I must say I find your site extremely informative, insightful and valuable! Having said that I’d love some advice on a trade I’ve been offer in a standard head to head yahoo keeper league..I am keeping the max# of 7, mostly offense, Wieters, Gonzo, Kinsler, Longoria, Holliday, Werth and also deciding between Hamels and Carpenter.. I have been offered Verlander for Werth.. I’m a little scared of his 2008 off year but know his potential is huge.. Any help would be great..thanks!

We think that, yes, Justin Verlander is trustworthy enough to repeat his 2009 success. The young fireballer did struggle during the ‘08 season, but he has three other campaigns with at least 17 wins under his belt. And besides that, few starters offer the type of reliability that Verlander does, in terms of reaching key benchmarks: 3.50 ERA, 200 innings, 200 strikeouts, 15 wins.

With that said, our move would still be to keep Werth over Verlander. Since starting pitchers are inherently more risky, then why not keep the more valuable, more sure thing in Werth and roll the dice with Hamels or Carpenter? We like Hamels over Carpenter in a keeper league, by the way. Focus on starting pitching early in the draft and identify a number of undervalued starters to monitor throughout.

If the draft ends and starting pitching is still a weakness, THEN take a look at dealing a hitter for a starting pitcher. Our best advice is to retain as much sheer value as you possibly can on your keeper list now and worry about roster balance and adjustments later.

Before shooting down the trade offer, however, consider one other option. How good is the next best position player on your roster? If he’s a worthy keeper, then using Werth to upgrade your pitching staff becomes a better option. In essence, that decision would come down to how big the dropoff is from Werth to another hitter vs. how big the upgrade is from Hamels to Verlander.

If there is any question or hesitation, err on the side of maximum roster value and choose Werth over Verlander.

Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
Overview: Lanky flamethrower bounced back from a dismal 2008 season to win 19 games and finish third in the AL Cy Young race last season … led Major League Baseball with 269 strikeouts and was tied for the MLB lead in wins … tossed more innings than any other pitcher in baseball and averaged an AL-best 10.1 Ks per 9.
2009 numbers: 19-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 269 Ks in 240 IP
Key splits and trends: Dominant in day games last year, going 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA … much better in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, where his 2.81 ERA was more than a point better than his road ERA (4.04) … stats were nearly identical before and after the All-Star break … take down ‘08 season out of the equation, and Verlander has averaged 18 wins per season.
Strengths: Has arguably the most electric fastball in the game, often reaching the high 90s and sometimes even touching 100 mph … no durability concerns, as he has tossed over 200 innings in each of the last four seasons … pitches deep into ballgames and threw three complete games in 2009.
Weaknesses: Was inconsistent down the stretch in the middle of the AL Central pennant race … year-to-year consistency as well, going 11-17 in 2008 and striking out 106 fewer batters … heavy workload in 2009 may limit Verlander’s strength and stamina down the stretch in 2010.
Bold prediction for 2010: Will be in the hunt for a Cy Young for a second straight year, this time registering his first 20-win season.

Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Overview: Bounced back last year after a disappointing 2008 campaign … validated the comparisons to Hall of Famer Rod Carew by showing his dynamic ability to hit for both power and average … had 200 hits for the first time in his career and ranked fifth in the American League with 75 XBH … power numbers increased across the board last year.
2009 numbers: .320 avg, 25 HRs, 85 RBIs, 103 runs, 5 SBs in 161 games
Key splits and trends: Cano struggled in May and June with a .271 average combined, but led all second basemen with 94 hits and had a .336 average after the All-Star break … was consistent away from Yankees Stadium with a .338/.303 split.
Strengths: Is surrounded by all-world talent throughout the entire order … has power to all fields and drives the ball in the gaps … has missed a total of six games over the last three years … still hasn’t maxed out his potential.
Weaknesses: Still has little, if any, plate discipline … walked just 30 times last year … is often bounced around the lineup and, as a result, his production could fluctuate.
Bold prediction for 2010: For the fourth time in his short career, Cano will top .300 with 27 home runs and just under 100 RBIs.

Gordon can’t catch a break, can he? A hip injury stunted his growth last season, and now a thumb injury threatens to derail his unofficial make-or-break 2010 season before it starts. Opening Day is in serious jeopardy is Gordon, not to mention the spring preparation time he’s missing while the rest of baseball moves on.

With all that in mind, it’s hard to like Gordon’s chances for a career year. He’ll start the season on the fantasy scrap heap and have to work his way onto a roster from there.

We’ve given Gordon the benefit of the doubt for his early struggles as a pro. Our justification? Gordon’s swing reminds us a lot of a young Justin Morneau, and Morneau was a late arrival in his career as well. It took three-plus seasons for Morneau to reach his massive potential, and he’s become a perennial MVP candidate since.

That time would be now for Gordon, though Morneau was considerably younger when he made the leap forward in 2006. Gordon enters the 2010 season as a 26-year-old with a .250 career average and a recent history of fluke injuries and bad luck. He needs a break to snap out of this funk, but a 30-homer season remains a [faint] possibility.

Bell is flying under the radar amongst prospects in fantasy, but he’s getting closer and closer to being Major League ready. A highly regarded prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ organization, he was shipped to Baltimore in the deadline deal for reliever George Sherrill last season.

Bell, 23, made his first appearance above the Single-A level in ‘09 and responded with a .295 average, 20 home runs and 76 RBIs in 127 games between Double-A clubs Chattanooga (Dodgers) and Bowie (Orioles). Perhaps more importantly, Bell hit for more power and showed better command of the strike zone, improving his walk rate (61 to 98 Ks) for the third straight season.

A successful stint with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk is the only thing standing between Bell and a starting job in Baltimore in 2011. Who knows, as Schmuck points out, a hot start by Bell and some kind of setback — injury or otherwise — to Tejada, and that opportunity could come sooner. Keep an eye on his progress in the early part of 2010.

In other American League East news …

Starting pitcher Chris Tillman threw two scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates [Baltimore Sun]

Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is inheriting ’some of the most fabled real estate in team history’ with his move from center to left field. [Boston Globe]

Free agent acquisition John Lackey was sharp in his Red Sox debut. [Boston Globe]

New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain has his hands full in a competition with Phil Hughes for the fifth and final spot in the team’s starting rotation. [New York Daily News]

Curtis Granderson is still in contention for the No. 2 spot in the Yankees’ order. [New York Times]

Tampa Bay Rays’ rookie Wade Davis allowed two runs on a hit and three walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Red Sox today. [Tampa Bay Tribune]

Meanwhile, Rays’ prospect Jeremy Hellickson made a strong debut against the Yankees. [Tampa Bay Tribune]

Toronto Blue Jays’ pitcher Brandon Morrow is making his case to be the team’s Opening Day starter. [Toronto Star]

Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, San Francisco Giants
Overview: Everybody’s sleeper last year, Kung Fu Panda did not disappoint … for the second straight season, hit for a .330+ average, this time adding 25-homer power to the mix … is an unconventional, pudgy free swinger in the Vladimir Guerrero mold … saw most of his action at third base last season, but played 26 games at first base and 3 as a catcher.
2009 numbers: .330 avg, 25 HRs, 90 RBIs, 79 runs, 5 SBs in 153 games
Key splits and trends: Hit over .300 in all but one month, and hit .298 in that month … hit .361 at AT&T park, 60 points better than road average … destroyed left-handed pitchers at a .379 clip … hit .500 against division-rival Diamondbacks … power numbers surged in his first full season with 74 XBH and a .556 slugging percentage.
Strengths: Durable and athletic despite pot belly build … qualifies at both first and third base in most leagues, and at catcher in leagues with loose eligibility requirements … brings power and average to the table and, at just 23 years old, still has room to grow.
Weaknesses: Has to prove he isn’t a one-year wonder; his build and lack of plate discipline don’t inspire confidence.
Bold prediction for 2010: His average falls closer to the .300 range, but with another run at 25 HRs and 90 RBIs.

Jackson, at least according to his new catcher, is no one-year wonder. He was traded to Detroit from Tampa Bay last season for little more than a bucket of baseballs (Matt Joyce) and went 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA, to the surprise of most.

The move to the National League this season — he was shipped to Arizona from Detroit in the three-way Curtis Granderson deal — should be an added benefit to his fantasy game as well. Doubts about his All-Star season in ‘09 are keeping Jackson on the board late into standard drafts. Far too late, in our opinion. Currently, he’s the 40th starter going off the board on MockDraftCentral.com.

As a 26-year-old former top prospect who has made drastic improvements in three straight seasons, that’s just not enough respect.

Lumping him in with unknowns Brett Anderson, Max Scherzer, David Price and Neftali Feliz is hard to justify. In an absolutely perfect scenario, those young, talents would put up the type of numbers that Jackson did a year ago. Jackson, though he’s being viewed as a candidate to regress, has a very good chance to take another step in the right direction.

He’s a classic thrower-turned-pitcher, who in Montero’s eyes, has developed a full arsenal of pitches. Statistically, the change in leagues also adds value to a pitcher who has improved his efficiency stats, walk rate, opponents’ batting average and ERA in each of the last three seasons.

“[Jackson is] going to make me look good,” Montero told the Arizona Republic. “He’s the type of pitcher who can make everybody look good.”

Drafting Jackson a few slots earlier than his average draft position — 18th round in standard mixed leagues — can make fantasy owners look pretty good, too.

In other National League West news …

D-backs outfielder Justin Upton, after signing a 6-year, $51.25 million contract, says ‘I want to be great.’ [Arizona Republic]

Colorado Rockies closer Huston Street is getting a late start to spring training because of a tight throwing shoulder. [Denver Post]

Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is in line for an Opening Day start. [LA Daily News]

Kershaw got the opportunity to learn from Dodgers’ great Sandy Koufax on a plane ride this week. [LA Times]

San Diego Padres rookie outfielder Kyle Blanks is ‘leaner and keener’ having dropped 15 pounds. [San Diego Union-Tribune]

New acquisition Aubrey Huff will be the San Francisco Giants’ fourth different starting first baseman in the last five opening days. [San Francisco Chronicle]

Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins
Overview: Season ended in mid-September after being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back … injury caused his numbers to take a serious dip in the second half of the season … still managed to reach the 30-HR and 100-RBI plateaus, however … is expected to be fully recovered in 2010, but back problems tend to linger.
2009 numbers: .274 avg, 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, 85 runs in 135 games.
Key splits and trends: Hit .311 with 21 HRs and 70 RBIs before the All-Star break … Morneau’s average dipped more than .100 points in the second half, hitting just .201 with 9 HRs … was hitting just .077 in September before being shut down … got off to a hot start in 2009, though, hitting .342 with 14 HRs and 47 RBIs.
Strengths: Before this season, was as durable as any first baseman in the majors … AL MVP candidate year-in and year-out … capable of 30 HRs and 120 RBIs in any given year … considerably low amount of strikeouts for a power hitter.
Weaknesses: Morneau is coming off a debilitating back injury that forced his season to end early and seriously limited his production … has a career high of just 76 walks … hasn’t swiped a bag since 2007 … move to an outdoor stadium could cause a slow start to the season.
Bold prediction for 2010: Gets off to a slow start, but rebounds to finish with a .290 avg., 28 HRs and 100 RBIs.