Ray Guilfoyle over at Fake Teams talks about position scarcity and how it affects fantasy baseball owners. While a valid point — that some owners overreact and make poor decisions based on fear of ‘missing out’ — positions do need to be considered.

There’s a balance to be struck between production, upside and a player’s position. Going into a draft dead set on filling scarce positions immediately is just as bad as completely disregarding position for the sake of stockpiling top talent. The best balance is found when an owner fluidly navigates a draft, identifying the best value for his particular situation. Read more »

Ah, the rookie. The most tantalizing, and frustrating, group of players in fantasy. Hard evidence suggests that a very select few will make an impact in their first seasons, but owners still can’t help but go nuts for them in their quests for cheap upside.

To find value in our fantasy rookies, we look for a collection of three attributes:

1.) Talent, obviously. And not only talent, but in what areas does it project in fantasy? A couple of premium tools, say power and baserunning, generally allow a prospect to overcome inexperience and produce early.

2.) Polish. Often, this trumps overall talent, in terms of making an immediate impact. Mature rookies, especially those who have spent several seasons in the minors, adjust quickly and produce with consistency.

3.) Opportunity. All the talent in the world means very little if there are no jobs to fill. The first step for a prospect is grabbing a roster spot. The next is earning enough confidence from his manager and prominent roles on his team. Read more »